Arizona Economy in a Recession?

Here is an interesting article about the Arizona Economy and if we are in a recession or not. Here are a few interesting facts from that article:
Is Arizona in a recession?
No one can say for sure, but because of these symptoms, economists say it probably is in one:
• Job growth has been stagnant or declining every month for five months now. The Arizona Department of Commerce predicts a 0.5 percent decline in non-farm jobs this year.
• Retail sales have declined 9.5 percent since peaking in December 2006.
• The Arizona Business Conditions Index, a survey of purchasing managers, fell below 50 every month from January through March but did rise to 52.2 in April. Indexes below 50 indicate a contraction in the economy.
• Claims for unemployment insurance have increased every month since September 2006.
Sources: Arizona Department of Commerce, W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, Eller College of Management at the University of Arizona, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

How is this going to play into the commercial real estate market? It will obviously have a negative impact, the only question is how negative? And then a follow up, how long will it last?

CRE is a hindsight business. We really won't be able to know for sure how to answer the questions above until next year. I will make a forecast that it is not nearly as bad as the media portrays. There are businesses still expanding and moving into our market and when a new business moves in it fuels the demand for more retail, housing, medical offices, etc.